3 Things I Do to Improve My Win Rate on Stock Breakouts

Breakout trades can feel incredible when they work and brutal when they do not. The difference often comes down to a few small decisions that either stack the odds in your favor or quietly work against you.

In this post and video I walk through three simple concepts I use to improve my win rate when trading stock breakouts, plus a bonus check that makes a big difference. I will use two real trades in precious metal miners, Kinross Gold and Barrick Gold, from 11 December 2025 to show exactly how I apply them on the 5 minute chart.

These ideas are easy to learn, repeatable, and work on any time frame because they are all about price, supply, and demand.

Please watch the video below to work through the examples.

Core concepts for better breakout trading

When I trade breakouts, I focus on these three main concepts, plus a bonus:

Context of the daily chart
Bullishness of the opening candlestick on my chosen intraday time frame (for me, 5 minutes)
Group theme confirmation, so the whole group is moving, not just one stock
Bonus: Intraday relative strength versus the major index that matters for that group

Why these concepts boost win rate

All four concepts help me answer simple questions about supply and demand.

Is the stock in a strong uptrend on the daily chart or extended and tired? Is demand stomping supply right off the open? Is the whole group under accumulation? Is this group stronger than the index today?

When the answer is yes across all four, my win rate on breakouts is much better.

✅ Concept 1: Context of the daily chart

I always start on the daily chart. If the context is poor, I do not care how pretty the intraday setup looks; I will pass.

In the examples in the video, all had very similar daily structures. They had been trending higher, repeatedly finding support at short term moving averages and then pushing to fresh highs. They were not extended straight up in the air. Instead, price had pushed up, pulled back in a controlled way, then tightened up around the moving averages before pushing again.

That is the sort of context I want to see before I even think about an intraday breakout.

Key moving averages I watch

On the daily chart I use a simple moving average stack:

10 day EMA (yellow)
21 day EMA (blue)
50 day SMA (purple)
65 day EMA (gray, when I have it on)

In these gold miner examples within the video, price was generally riding the 10 day EMA, pulling into it, holding, and then pushing away again. That tells me buyers are stepping in on shallow pullbacks and the trend is healthy.

Constructive price action patterns

Ahead of the breakout day, all three charts showed what I call constructive action around support:

A push up, then a pullback into the 10 day EMA
An almost inside day with lower volume
A shakeout demand tail near support, where price dips down then closes strong

You could see it in:

GDX

GDX pushed higher, pulled into the 10 day EMA on lighter volume, then showed a shakeout candle where price dipped and demand stepped in. That set up the next push.

Kinross Gold

Kinross Gold had a nice run up, pulled back into the 10 day EMA, then printed a tight day followed by a shakeout tail around that same moving average. That told me demand was still very active there.

Barrick Gold

Barrick Gold also showed a push, controlled pullback, a clean inside day on lower volume, then a shakeout demand tail that held around the short term moving averages.

Put together, the daily context across the group was clear: strong trend, controlled pullbacks, demand showing up at support.

Precious metal miners as a strong 2025 theme

In 2025, precious metal miners have been one of the strongest themes in the market. They have also shown a habit of breaking out cleanly from the open and then trending intraday. That fits my playbook.

I want stocks and groups that like to do what I want to trade. If I am looking for opening breakouts, I want to see a recent history where those breakouts actually work.

On TradingView I use my free 5 minute opening range breakout indicator and my RS line script. You can find both by visiting my TradingView profile and scripts page, or by signing up with my TradingView referral link if you need an account.

Stocks that match my trading style

Before I trade a stock intraday, I like to look back over recent weeks and ask:

Has this stock formed bullish opening 5 minute candles that then led to strong trends?
Does it like to trend along the 5 minute 6 EMA or 5 minute 21 EMA when it gets going?

For GDX, Kinross Gold, and Barrick Gold, the answer in 2025 has often been yes. That is one reason I keep them on my intraday watchlists.

Sweet spot for initial risk

Next I think about my initial stop distance relative to the stock’s recent volatility. I use the 20 day average daily range percentage (ADR) as my yardstick. That is the average intraday range over the last 20 sessions, excluding gaps.

On these trades:

For Kinross Gold, my stop from entry to low of day was just over 1%
For Barrick Gold, the initial risk was around 2%
The ADR on both names was about 4%

Here is how that looks:

Stock	Initial risk %	20 day ADR %	Risk as fraction of ADR
Kinross Gold	~1%	~4%	About 1/4
Barrick Gold	~2%	~4%	About 1/2

The sweet spot I aim for is roughly one quarter to one half of the 20 day ADR.

If my stop is closer to three quarters of ADR, I usually skip the trade unless everything else is perfect.

Why quarter to half is ideal

If my initial risk is around a quarter to a half of ADR and the stock goes on a good intraday run, it only needs to move about its normal range for the day for me to be up one times risk or more.

That allows me to scale out or move to a near free roll position while still keeping plenty of size for the rest of the trend. It keeps the downside controlled and gives the upside room.

When I combine that with strong daily context and group strength, the math starts to work in my favor.

✅ Concept 2: Bullishness of the opening candlestick

Once the daily context looks good, I zoom into the 5 minute chart and watch the first candle of the day very closely.

I want that opening bar to scream that demand is in control. For an opening range breakout, I am looking for a strong, wide range bar where price opens near the low and closes near the high, with very little upper wick.

Why the 5 minute time frame works best for me

For intraday breakouts, the 5 minute chart is my sweet spot.

It gives me:

Enough time in the first few minutes to breathe, scan my watchlists, and spot where the algos and big buyers are pushing
Enough structure to capture most of the intraday trend, not just scalps

On 11 December, Kinross Gold and Barrick Gold both broke out through the high of their first 5 minute candle and then trended for hours. GDX rallied more than 5% intraday and held above the 5 minute 6 EMA almost the entire session.

Benefits over 1 or 2 minute charts

Shorter time frames like the 1 or 2 minute charts can look very noisy. You get lots of tiny shakeouts and micro pullbacks that can stop you out too often.

On the other side, time frames like 10, 15, or 30 minutes can be too slow for my style. By the time a clear pattern forms, a lot of the move is gone.

The 5 minute chart sits in the middle and works well for me.

What a perfect opening bar looks like

On that day, GDX had a textbook opening 5 minute candle:

It opened right near the low of the bar
It closed right near the high of the bar
The range was wide and clean

That is a clear sign that demand is overpowering supply from the opening bell.

Kinross Gold and Barrick Gold showed the same idea. Both printed strong first 5 minute candles and then broke out through those highs. Barrick had a little shakeout early in the bar, then recovered and closed strong, which I also like to see.

Trading precious metal miners live

All of this only works if I can see the action clearly in real time.

During the session I usually have around 100 stocks up. I group them by theme so I might have:

Precious metal miners on one screen
Mega caps on another
Semiconductors, clean energy, drones, crypto, and so on on others

That makes it easy to spot where the strength is in the first 5 to 15 minutes.

My monitor setup hack

For screens, I actually use 43 inch 4K TVs instead of traditional monitors. They are cheap, usually under £200, and the large, almost square rectangular shape is perfect for loading lots of charts.

I find them far better value than most monitors and ideal for a multi chart setup.

✅ Concept 3: Group theme confirmation

This is the key subtle point that many traders skip.

I do not want to see just one gold miner breaking out. I want to see almost the entire group trying to break out together. On 11 December that is exactly what happened. Out of the 15 or 16 miners I watch, nearly all of them were strong in the first 5 minutes.

GDX acts as my barometer for the group. It tells me what the average gold miner is doing. When GDX is breaking out on a powerful opening bar, I know the group is strong.

Watching the group live

Because I group charts by theme, I can glance at my precious metals screen and instantly see if:

All the miners are strong
Only a few are strong
The group is mixed or weak

On that breakout day, the whole screen lit up green. That gave me more confidence to take the opening range breakouts in Kinross, Barrick, and others.

Sector ETFs for other themes

You can use the same idea in other sectors.

For example:

XLF for financials like Bank of America, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs
XLK for technology
XLV for healthcare
XLE for oil and gas

If I see XLF explode higher in the first 5 minutes, there is a good chance several big banks are offering great opening range breakout setups.

Why grouping charts helps

When you group charts by theme and use the sector ETF as your barometer, strength jumps out at you. You are no longer guessing; you can see if a move is stock specific or part of a broader group run.

✅ Bonus concept 4: Intraday relative strength

The final check I like to use is intraday relative strength versus the most relevant major index.

For precious metal miners, I usually compare them to the SPY ETF, because gold miners are not part of the big tech complex.

If the group and the stock are acting well and, at the same time, they are outperforming SPY on the open, that is a powerful sign.

SPY vs GDX on 11 December

Look at the opening 5 minute candle on 11 December:

SPY: Printed a red candle that opened higher, tried to go up, then fell and closed weak
GDX: Printed a wide, bullish green candle, opening near the low and closing near the high

That contrast is intraday relative strength in action. While the index was wobbling, precious metal miners were powering higher.

Applying it to individual stocks

On that day, Kinross Gold and Barrick Gold were both breaking out with strong opening 5 minute candles, the whole group was strong, GDX was breaking out, and they were outperforming SPY.

All four concepts lined up:

Strong daily context
Bullish opening candle on the 5 minute chart
Group theme confirmation
Intraday relative strength versus SPY

That is the kind of alignment I want when I put capital at risk on a breakout.

✅ Tools and resources to go deeper

If you want to study this style more, I have a few resources that can help:

My free RS Line and breakout indicators on TradingView, which you can find on my published scripts page
A TradingView referral link if you want to set up a new account and build similar layouts
My Deliberate Practice & Return Simulation Sheet, available as a Google Sheets template, to help you practice and track your process

If you want structured support, daily plans, and live coaching, you can join my community through the membership on my site. You can also subscribe to my YouTube channel for regular market videos.

For more learning, you might like:

Conclusion

Improving your breakout win rate is not about finding a magic pattern. It is about stacking small edges on top of each other in a consistent way.

For me that means trading in the right daily context, demanding a strong opening candle, waiting for group theme confirmation, and checking intraday relative strength versus the index. When all four line up, I press my advantage with defined risk based on the 20 day ADR.

If you trade breakouts, try walking through these four checks on your own charts and see how often your best trades already fit this pattern. Thanks for reading, and I hope this gives you some clear, practical ideas to apply in your next session.