Most traders (me included) don’t struggle because they “don’t know enough.” We struggle because we don’t know what matters most when it matters most. When a stock is about to put in a serious breakout day, the clues are usually there early, if I’m looking at the right things.
In my December 19, 2025 live coaching session for my members, I reviewed several of the cleanest opening range breakout (ORB) style trades from the year and pulled out the common traits I keep seeing again and again. The big idea is simple: supply and demand leaves footprints, and those footprints tend to repeat.
Daily chart context that keeps breakout trades clean
Before I even get excited about the opening 5-minute candle, I want the daily chart working with me. The cleaner ORB trend days I’ve seen usually start with the same backdrop: the stock is acting like a leader.
The daily moving averages I want stacked underneath price
Most of the best examples I reviewed were above all the key daily moving averages. For my process, that usually means:
- 10-day EMA
- 21-day EMA
- 50-day EMA
- 65-day EMA
- 200-day EMA
When price is above these levels, the trade tends to behave better. It’s not “perfect,” but it’s cleaner. When a stock is below key moving averages, it can still run, but it often turns into stop-start action, chopping around as it runs into overhead supply (like the 50-day), then gets hit back down.
From a trade management angle, this matters. If the daily chart is strong and stacked, I’ve got more ways to manage a winner without getting shaken out for no reason.
My extension rule, avoid “too far, too fast”
I also care about where the stock is relative to the 10-day EMA. If price is not extended, I can take a breakout and still have structure beneath it.
A simple way I think about it is extension versus the stock’s 20-day ADR percentage (average daily range, excluding gaps). If a stock is already 1 to 2 times its 20-day ADR above the 10-day EMA, it’s often too stretched for me to be chasing it. I’d rather catch the breakout closer to the 10-day, where risk and reward can stay asymmetric.
Relative strength helps me stay with leaders, not laggards
A big filter for me is relative strength. If the stock’s RS line is at 52-week highs (or close), that’s a strong clue I’m looking at leadership, not a random bounce.
If you use TradingView, I’ve published my RS line tool here: my free RS Line indicator for TradingView. It’s not about making charts look fancy, it’s about keeping my attention on the names institutions and algos are actually accumulating.
The patterns I kept seeing on the daily chart
The daily patterns behind the best ORB days were familiar:
- Cup-and-handle style breakouts
- Inverted head-and-shoulders type bases
- “Shakeout” type pullbacks into the 21-day EMA, then strong recovery
- Tight basing action near the 10-day EMA before the breakout
That context doesn’t guarantee the trade works, but it stacks the odds. Then I shift to the 5-minute chart and look for the real tell.
The opening 5-minute candle: how I spot demand fast
The opening candle is where I want to see an imbalance. I’m not trying to predict, I’m trying to read what’s happening.
The “ideal” ORB candle shape I keep seeing
For the strongest breakout days, the opening 5-minute candle often looks like this:
- It opens near the low of the bar
- It pushes hard through the candle
- It closes near the high of the bar
That’s the cleanest sign I know that demand is overpowering supply. Buyers step in immediately at the open, they chew through sell orders, and price finishes the opening range with control.
This is a supply and demand read, not a “5-minute magic trick.” The same idea applies on the 1-minute, 2-minute, 3-minute, 15-minute, 30-minute, or 1-hour chart. The 5-minute is just the timeframe I prefer for consistency.
Why this works, even in an algo-heavy market
Whether it’s discretionary traders, funds, or algorithms, everyone has to buy and sell. That’s why I don’t expect this to stop working. When demand hits the tape hard at the open, it tends to show up as:
- strong body size on the candle
- close near highs
- fast follow-through
- (often) intraday relative strength
I also coded a 5-minute ORB indicator for myself to help highlight these conditions, but the core read is visual. I want demand overpowering supply, right away.
Big ORB days often move 2 to 3 times ADR
The biggest breakout days I reviewed commonly went 2 times, sometimes 3 times, their 20-day ADR percentage. That’s why I care about ADR so much, it anchors expectations.
If I know what “normal” daily movement looks like, I can recognize when the stock is doing something abnormal. That’s where the best opportunities usually sit.
Intraday trade management: my two 5-minute EMAs
Finding the setup is one part. Holding it is the hard part.
On strong ORB trend days, I’ve found two moving averages on the 5-minute chart do a lot of heavy lifting for trade management:
- 5-minute 6 EMA (on my charts, this is the orange line)
- 5-minute 21 EMA (on my charts, this is the blue line)
My core sell rule: back-to-back closes below the 6 EMA
For many ORB trades, I trail using the 5-minute 6 EMA, and I watch for back-to-back closes below it. One close can be noise. Two closes tells me the character may be changing.
This rule has a nice balance. It’s structured, but it doesn’t force me to micromanage.
When a stock is “powered up,” I let the 21 EMA keep me in
If the stock is showing all-day intraday relative strength, riding higher with very little pullback, I’ll often give it more room and trail with the 5-minute 21 EMA.
The point isn’t selling the top. A trailing stop is there to capture the bulk of the trend without making me guess.
How I think about scaling out without killing the trade
A simple approach I like is:
- Take partial profits when it starts losing the 6 EMA
- Keep a runner as long as it holds the 21 EMA
That way, I reduce risk but still give myself a chance to catch the real trend move, which is where the year’s best ORB trades came from.
One line I keep close to me (from the Mark Douglas school of thought) is: I buy A plus setup opportunities, then make myself available to what the market wants to provide me, as per my sell rules.
That’s the job. Follow the rules, let outcomes vary.
If you want charting tools that make this easier to track, here’s my TradingView referral link.
Case study: Robinhood (HOOD), a clean “leader” breakout day
HOOD is a good example of what I mean by clean daily context. In the setup I reviewed, it was above the key daily moving averages and acting like leadership.
Watch the video analysis here
If you want a broader write-up on HOOD’s 2025 breakout behavior, this Investor’s Business Daily piece is a useful reference: Robinhood stock makes a bullish move in a volatile base.
Here’s what stood out to me on the day I covered:
- ADR at the time was 4.72%
- The stock put in an intraday move that was roughly about 2 times ADR
- The opening 5-minute candle showed that strong “open near low, close near high” demand signature
- Intraday, it respected the trend well, with no close below the 5-minute 21 EMA in that example
That “no closes below the 21 EMA” behavior is a huge tell. It’s one of the clearest ways a trend day shows itself.
Case study: Tesla (TSLA), day two breakout behavior still follows the same rules
Tesla’s example was a classic breakout from a larger daily base, with volume expanding and the RS line improving.
Watch the video analysis here.
What mattered most to me was that the opening 5-minute candle showed the same demand characteristics:
- Opened near the low
- Pushed hard
- Closed near the high
The move on the session was roughly around 2 times its 20-day ADR percentage (rounded numbers in the review). And the best part, it didn’t put traders under pressure early. The cleaner breakouts often feel “easy” because demand is simply in control.
On the management side, the EMAs did their job. The 6 EMA gave a practical trailing stop, and the 21 EMA helped capture the bulk of the intraday trend for anyone treating it as a stronger runner.
Case study: IONQ, quantum strength and a bigger-than-usual intraday expansion
IONQ was one of the stronger quantum-related examples from 2025. The daily chart had base breakout features (inverted head-and-shoulders and cup-and-handle type interpretations came up in the review), plus a shakeout action near longer-term moving average context.
Watch the video analysis here.
A few details I called out:
- ADR was roughly around 6% (rounded in the review)
- The session move was roughly about 3 times ADR (example math used)
- RVOL was 6.17 times the recent baseline in that opening window
Even with that, I don’t treat high RVOL as a requirement. HOOD’s RVOL in the review was only 1.19, Tesla’s was around 2.21. Big breakouts can happen without huge RVOL.
Intraday, the same idea played out:
- A clear moment where back-to-back closes under the 6 EMA would have taken you out
- The 21 EMA allowed a trader to hold more of the trend before the real break in character
Case study: Oklo (OKLO), how I think about true trend days
OKLO was a great reminder that not every great ORB starts with a perfect clean candle. In the example, there was more of a shakeout element early, then demand took control.
Watch the video analysis here.
Key numbers from the review:
- ADR at the time was 9.3%
- The move was roughly about 3 times ADR (rounded example math)
The bigger lesson for me was management. These strong trend days can be hard to hold because the open profit builds fast and the urge to “take it” kicks in.
This is where I like to ride the 21 EMA when the stock is acting right. If there are no back-to-back closes below the 21 EMA, the trend is still intact. That’s a clean, rules-based way to avoid selling a monster too early.
Group theme confirmation: the nuclear trio (OKLO, SMR, LEU) on June 11, 2025
One of my favorite parts of the review was the group theme example from June 11, 2025.
Watch the video analysis here.
Three nuclear and clean energy related names moved hard the same day:
- OKLO
- SMR
- LEU
When multiple stocks in the same theme are breaking out and trending, it’s a different environment. The odds of follow-through improve because money is flowing into a “bucket,” not just one ticker.
What their opening candles had in common
Even with small differences (some cleaner, some with shakeout tails), the shared trait was the same: early demand showed up, and after the opening range, they pushed with little hesitation.
RVOL was low, and they still ran
This is the part that surprises people. In the review, RVOL readings were not impressive, but the price action was.
Here’s a quick snapshot of what I covered:
| Stock | Date referenced | RVOL mentioned | Big picture move discussed |
|---|---|---|---|
| LEU | June 11, 2025 | 0.29 | Pushed roughly about 10% over ADR context |
| OKLO | June 11, 2025 | 0.55 to 0.65 | Major trend day behavior (around 20% discussed in the review) |
| SMR | June 11, 2025 | Not specified | Big run, trended cleanly with EMA structure |
My main takeaway: low RVOL doesn’t disqualify a trade. I still care about volume, but I care more about the demand signal and whether the stock can trend.
Why the theme matters for holding, not just entering
Theme confirmation isn’t only for picking trades. It helps me hold them.
If OKLO is trending and SMR and LEU are trending too, I’m less likely to panic sell the first pullback. It’s easier to follow the plan when the group is acting right.
In the review, I called this nuclear theme day one of the best opportunities of the year because the setup allowed a tight stop (a small percentage move against you) compared to the upside potential once the trend got going.
The 80/20 reminder I’m carrying into 2026
Most of the profits in a breakout strategy usually come from a small number of trades. That’s the 80/20 principle in action. My job isn’t to force every trade to be a home run, it’s to recognize the home run traits when they show up:
- daily chart strength and clean context
- opening demand signal on the 5-minute candle
- an intraday trend that respects the 6 EMA and often the 21 EMA
- (bonus) group theme confirmation
Resources I use to keep improving
If you want to go deeper into how I structure this process, here are a few helpful resources I’ve shared:
- JackCorsellis.com trading community membership
- MarketSurge discounted trial
- Deliberate practice and return simulation Google Sheet template
Conclusion
When I look back at the best stock breakouts of 2025, the patterns aren’t complicated. The best trades had clean daily context, clear opening demand, and enough strength to trend without putting me under pressure. Once I see that, my main job is simple, follow my rules and let the market decide how much it wants to give.
If I carry one thing into 2026, it’s this: strong trend days leave clues early, and the 5-minute chart usually tells the truth fast.